The week ahead – A busy economic calendar and geopolitics in the spotlight
On the macro
It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar, with 65 statistics expected in the week ending April 1. The previous week, 43 statistics had been developed.
At the start of the week, consumer confidence, ADP non-farm payrolls and fourth quarter GDP figures will be in focus.
Expect consumer confidence and ADP numbers to be key.
On Thursday, the focus will be on personal spending, inflation and unemployment insurance claims numbers.
The key stat for the week will be the non-farm payrolls numbers to be released on Friday.
FOMC member chatter will also need to be watched in the week.
In the week ending 25and In March, the Dollar Spot Index rose 0.57% to 98.789.
The German economy will be the center of attention at the start of the week, as consumer confidence figures are due.
On Thursday, the German economy remains in the spotlight. Retail sales and unemployment figures are expected.
At the end of the week, the manufacturing PMIs of the Member States and the Eurozone will also attract more interest.
Preliminary March inflation figures for Member States and the Eurozone will be the key statistics for the week. Markets expect another surge in consumer prices to test support for riskier assets.
For the week, the euro fell 0.62% to $1.0983.
For the pound:
Fourth-quarter GDP numbers will be of interest on Thursday, ahead of the final manufacturing PMI numbers on Friday.
With little to consider, expect both sets of numbers to influence.
BoE Governor Bailey speaks on Monday, while MPC member Broadbent delivers a speech on Wednesday. Any chatter about monetary policy or the economic outlook will have an influence.
The pound rose 0.03% to end the week at $1.3182.
For the Loonie:
It’s a particularly quiet week ahead. Economic data is limited to GDP figures on Thursday. While the numbers provide direction, market risk sentiment and crude oil prices will remain the main driver.
The Loonie ended the week up 1.00% at C$1.2477 against the US dollar.
From Asia Pacific
For the Australian dollar:
Retail sales and credit to the private sector figures will be the main statistics for the week. Expect retail sales to have the biggest impact, with consumption being the key to economic growth.
The Australian dollar jumped 1.35% to $0.7515.
For the kiwi dollar:
Building permits and business confidence figures are the key statistics for the week. Expect business confidence to have the most influence on the Kiwi Dollar.
The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up 0.93% at $0.6972.
For the Japanese yen:
It’s a busier week ahead, with retail sales, industrial production and Tankan survey data to spark interest.
Although the numbers are eye-catching, we don’t expect sensitivity to the Japanese yen. Monetary policy divergence and market risk sentiment will remain the main drivers.
The Japanese yen fell 2.42% to end the week at ¥122.05 against the US dollar.
Outside of China
The private sector PMI indices for March will be in focus. While the NBS numbers will spark interest, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI, due out on Friday, will impact market risk sentiment.
In the week ending 25and In March, the yuan fell 0.08% to end the week at 6.3662 against the dollar.
Russia and Ukraine will remain in focus over the coming week as markets seek news of a ceasefire.