Retail sales will show impact of lockdowns
It is estimated that the price of foreclosing Australia’s two major cities will cost the nation around $ 10 billion, but this is a growing figure that could cause the economy to contract in the September quarter.
The full impact on households from last month’s only Victorian foreclosure will be evident when new retail spending figures are released on Wednesday.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release its preliminary retail trade figures for June, with economists’ forecasts focusing on a 0.4% drop, erasing the 0.4% gain seen in May.
Forecasts range from an increase of 0.3% to a decrease of 1%.
However, Westpac economists point out that the lockdowns have already generated gains for retail sectors like staple foods, which account for 40% of total retail sales.
But in a note to customers, they also point out that the July figures will be rocked by the instant lockdowns in Brisbane, Darwin and Perth, as well as the now long restrictions in Greater Sydney.
Greater Sydney is on lockdown until at least July 30, with additional restrictions announced on Saturday, while Victoria is in another five-day shutdown, which could be further extended.
Yet history shows that once restrictions are relaxed, the economy rebounds fairly quickly.
The Reserve Bank will release the minutes of its July 6 board meeting on Tuesday, in which it left the spot rate at an all-time high of 0.1% and made adjustments to its future. bond buying program.
RBA Governor Philip Lowe then gave a rare press conference, followed by an in-depth speech, suggesting that the minutes may not offer anything new for the interest rate outlook.
However, a key message that has emerged is the need to reduce the unemployment rate.
Last week’s labor force figures showing the unemployment rate falling to a 10-year low of 4.9% will reassure the RBA, even though outbreaks of the virus have now blurred the outlook.
Other data due to the ABS include weekly wage employment figures and preliminary international trade figures for June, both on Thursday.
Meanwhile, Australian stocks are expected to experience a low open on Monday as concerns over the highly contagious Delta variant increase both here in the United States and in other parts of the world.
On Friday on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.86% to close at 34,686.08 points while the S&P 500 lost 0.75% to 4,327.19 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0, 78% at 14,429.43.
Australian equity futures were 37 points, or 0.5% lower, at 7,232.
On Friday, the Australian benchmark S & P / ASX200 closed up 12.2 points, or 0.17%, at 7,348.1.